120 replies to this topic

[SKI]

"rider69"

Is that just one of your ever-so-informed guesses? Or based on fact?

[thursday]

it's just another white elephant to use the mega white elephant of the Seiken tunnel.

[pie-eater]

Taken from classified original plans

[Black Mountain]

Originally Posted By: SKI

But does that not include quita a large number of people?


As Jim said, any weather bad enough to shut down a shink will likely also shut down Chitose airport.

Sure it could service a lot of people... but there are also loads and loads of people living in Tokyo who would not ever use this service because they have such easy access to the airport and because the price is way too high. In my opinion the only real winners would be the people living east of Tokyo that have some distance to go to get to the airport. And don't forget that the only real difference between the existing service and the future shikansen is that you could stop in Kutchan before Sapporo. The vast majority of people traveling to Hokkaido are going to Sapporo and not the little backwoods stations that would include Kutchan... I would even speculate that Kutchan won't be a stop on express shinkansen because of how small the town is which would make the service pretty irregular. Airdo alone has 10 flights between Tokyo and Sapporo each day...if you include JAL, ANA, Skymark, etc there would be at least 30 flights.

As for wind shutting down the airport... well, it would only be shut down if it was directly affected by a storm whereas a storm at any point along the tracks could affect service.

BTW, Muika I have a feeling that the Tokaido shinkansen is probably a little better than yours But it gets delayed so often because it is exposed to wind.

[muikabochi]

Doesn't sound like it, mate.

[thursday]

no, there are 61 flights from Haneda to Sapporo daily. And the same the other way.

[thursday]

oops, 62.

[frannyo]

Last time I checked, a few people lived to the east of Tokyo between there and Sapporo.

Quote:

And don't forget that the only real difference between the existing service and the future shikansen is that you could stop in Kutchan before Sapporo.

Why? Is it not going to go faster?

[Black Mountain]

Funny guy Muika! I'll bet the Niigata shinkansen gets shut down more often than you realize but it doesn't affect you because you don't use it every day. In fact, the only reason I know about the delays on the Tokaido is that we have several students who use it to come to school so every time they get delayed I get a phone call.

[muikabochi]

Possibly.
But I have never heard of real delays.

Other forms of transport round these parts deal very nicely with mad amounts of snow, and I would guess the same buses etc do not deal with it where you live. They are prepared for it.

Perhaps the Joetsu shink is similarly made of sturdier stuff because of the climatic conditions it has to deal with?

Just saying.

[Black Mountain]

Originally Posted By: frannyo

Last time I checked, a few people lived to the east of Tokyo between there and Sapporo.

Why? Is it not going to go faster?

Every major city center is west of Tokyo. There is also already a shinkansen to Hachinohe. Do you really think there are that many people between Hachinohe and Sapporo to justify constructing this new line? As for the difference in time... over short distances there is almost no difference between taking the shikansen and taking an express train.

[Man_In_Japan]

Oi - I'll have you know, Sendai is a major city centre!

[Black Mountain]

LOL! Yeah sorry! Sendai does have a million people living there... but it's easy to forget about.

[thursday]

Perhaps a poll here would be usefull.

Good idea; bad idea.

[Man_In_Japan]

You forgot "don't care".

[thursday]

don't care about that.

[DiGriz]

Is the extension going to be profitable? Not likely in the immediate future, but so what?

It was widely argued that the original Tokyo-Osaka shinkansen would never show a profit. Same for the Panama & Suez canals.
It's going to be built, and there's no knowing how the economics will work out; the point is how useful will it be for those of us who want to slide on snow.

Certainly, it's not going to help people in Kansai travel to Niseko, that will always be faster to fly. Numazu, I don't know, but I'll take Black Mt's word that it would be about the same in time and would cost more. So maybe for him it's a non-starter.

I'd say for most people living in Tokyo, it will depend mostly on the cost. If it's equal, or only slightly more, I would definitely take the train. If far more expensive (that 35k vs 15k estimate), I might stick to flying.
But certainly there's no question that it would be much simpler and far more comfortable on the train. And I suspect that in winter, even if not year-round, Kutchan will indeed be a regular stop.
If you're arguing that it shouldn't be built, well as far as I can see that just

[Man_In_Japan]

The cheapest you can a do return to Sapporo from Haneda is 20,000yen inc. taxes with Sky-mark, but that ticket has to be booked nigh on as soon as it comes out. And transfers to and from Niseko are a minimum of about 5,000 return.

The train would have to come in at 35,000yen max for me to choose the shinkansen over the plane. Anything over that and it's plane for me.

[DiGriz]

Probably about the same calculation for me.
A lot will depend on JR vs airline subsidies for package tours, winter & summer. Right now, the airlines make it very cheap to fly up (I'm going to estimate about 15k round trip) on a package deal with hotel & bus.
One question is whether they can afford to keep doing that. Another is if JR will compete on that level.
Well, all a bit theoretical for me anyway. My serious skiing days will probably be over by the time it's up & running

[Mr Wiggles]

A shinkansen stop on the Tokaido line that was planned for Ritto in Shiga was cancelled after they started building it.

Basically a lady became the new mayor of Shiga on a "stop waste" platform and cancelled it at the prefecture level despite opposition from Ritto itself. The Ritto mayor and some of his mates teamed up to try and turf her out but she's just been reelected with a landslide victory. In her first term, she also stopped a dam.

There's is plenty of time to for this to change or be downgraded. All it would take is a change in who foots what proportion of the bill. The four hours from Tokyo to Sapporo in 2020 sounds unrealistic to me. Aside from the budget, it assumes they can go much faster than they do already on lines where they have lots of experience.